I have long said that the toughest time period for having kids is between three and 18 months. I am speaking from a man’s point of view, because that is the view I am pointing from.
The women always say the birthing part and the first few months is really hard with the nursing and the crying and the sleeping and all of that, but there’s no way for me to validate any of that. So let’s just say I’m right; months 3-18 are the toughest.
Well, your boy has now achieved it three times. Young Trea Baby (#YTB) is now 19 months old. Some people would call that “one year”, and so would I have until I became a man and realized that no, 18 months is too important of a milestone to round down with.
#YTB and I played catch last night. We were sitting on the floor and kind of bouncing and rolling a ball back and forth, but it counts. And he was good at it. I mean I was putting those two-hoppers directly in his bread basket, setting him up for success, but he was doing his part. And then he went on to another toy, and I just watched him play for like 25 straight minutes; I just stared at him. It was marvelous.
Some of you with babies might be wondering, “What happens at 18 months?”. And I’ll tell you. It’s not going to be the same time period with every kid, of course, but somewhere around that time, their brain finally reaches the point where it understands their surroundings at a real level. They can really communicate in a way that makes sense, they understand cause-and-effect, and they’re smart enough to probably not end up killing themselves if left alone for a little bit.
So it’s fantastic, and I’m very joyous.
There is a whole lot to talk about, and today I have a lot of time to talk about it!
By my count, the league hit 50 bombs last night, even with two PPD games. That was the most in a single day all year.
Ten longest:
Ten shortest:
The league hit .262/.337/.492. That SLG is more than 100 points above the season average. Crazy night. And I got lucky once again on DraftKings, cramming a handful of those homers into my lineup and cashing big once again (3rd out of 100 in the $10 Hundo!) despite very bad choices at SP (although there weren’t many good choices to make, it turned out):
The sun run continues.
Pitcher Review
It was all about the hitters yesterday, but still plenty to talk about here.
Yusei Kikuchi
Let’s start with the guy who struck out 13. Kikuchi went for 19 whiffs and did this in the box score:
7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 13 K, 0 BB
It felt like this start was a long time coming. Since June 6th, he has a 31.1% K% with a 6.1% BB%, and yet a 4.62 ERA. That has a lot to do with the nine homers he’s given up at the same time. Kikuchi has long had an issue with the long ball, but it’s been ridiculous lately. His 28.9% K% since June 1st is 14th-best in the league, and the 23.1 K-BB% is 9th-best. And lots of people have been dropping him. I would add him immediately if available.
Bobby Miller
4 IP, 10 H, 9 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, 9.2% SwStr%, 40.2% Strike%, 37.9% Ball%
Turns out that my model was right to boost up his walk rate yesterday, and that was one of the few props that actually worked out. Miller has been a diaster since returning from the injury. Something is clearly not right.
The velo is down, but it’s still solid around 96. Here’s the full arsenal breakdown from these last four outings:
Everybody is trying to figure out what’s going on. To me it’s pretty clear
Bad Command (89 Location+, 14.5% BB%)
Bad Luck
Not a good combo. I wouldn’t start him again until we see a start where he’s throwing strikes. I’m not sure I would drop him at this point, but it’s quite likely the Dodgers send him back to the IL or back to AAA for a little bit to work this stuff out.
Brayan Bello
5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 11 K, 2 BB, 21.9% SwStr%, 61.9% Strike%, 25.7% Ball%
This is one of the weirdest lines I’ve ever seen. The 61.9% Strike% was the 10th-best all year (out of 2,683 qualified outings). It was just the fifth time all year a pitcher had 10+ strikeouts with 5+ earned runs.
It was only the sixth time since 2021 that a pitcher went for 10+ strikeouts, 5+ earned runs, and 9+ hits allowed.
Bello is a weird pitcher, and the Athletics are a weird offense - so a weird result isn’t shocking. Yesterday’s pitch mix data:
The sinker and slider were both awesome at earning strikes but also got hit pretty hard when contact was made.
Bello’s held back by his sinker. For the year, he’s thrown it 41% of the time, and it has earned just a 48% Strike% and a 5.5% SwStr%. It does generate a high GB% (63%), but it’s too easy to put into play. And behind that is a good changeup (19% SwStr%) and mediocre slider (14.4% SwStr%).
Everything is fine, but no pitch can carry him, they’re all just a bit shy of where they need to be. In deep leagues, he’s a fine guy to start in good matchups, but I don’t think we have much upside with Bello even seeing this big strikeout performance here (in a boosted matchup).
Joey Estes
1.2 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 1 K, 1 BB
It’s just a conspiracy at this point to make me look dumb. The powers that be are after me, obviously.
Carlos Rodon
4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 20% SwStr%, 46.3% Strike%%, 42.1% Ball%
He keeps doing this. Bad box score results, but a ton of whiffs. His last five starts have been awful, with 27 earned runs allowed in 23 innings (10.56 ERA), but he has 31 strikeouts and 10 walks in the same time frame. That’s a very good 27% K% and a non-awful 8.7% BB%. You can probably guess that he’s given up a bunch of homers here (8).
Home run stuff is much more likely to regress than whiff stuff, so there’s reason to believe Rodon can have some very good stats in the second half. I’m not sure I’d be holding on to him in a 10 or 12-team league. But this is one of the unluckiest 10+ ERAs you’ll ever see (all 10+ ERAs are unlucky).
Rodon Last 30 Days
ERA: 8.40
SIERA: 3.85
Zac Gallen
5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 9.5% SwStr%, 43.8% Strike%
Not very good there against the Braves. The velocity was down from the last two, but still up from his usual.
It’s Gallen; you just keep starting him - the overall results will be quite good in the second half as long as he stays healthy. Maybe he’s even a buy-low guy right now.
Hitter Review
Rece Hinds
In two Major League games now, he has five hits, two doubles, one triple, and two homers. I had never heard of this guy before this week, but he’s certainly caught our attention. So, who is Rece Hinds?
First thing to check is the skill projection in my model. Those marks:
K%: 32%
BB%: 6%
Brl%: 10%
In 323 PAs in AAA, he did this:
.220/.294/.416, .710 OPS, 13 HR, 25 PA/HR, 38% K%, 9% BB%, 60.5% Contact%, 13.6% Brl%, 47% GB%
This is a very bleak picture. That low of a contact rate in AAA is almost sure to turn into something like a 35%-40% K% in the Majors, and then you also get a higher ground ball rate with him. He can hit the seams off the ball for sure (116.3 max EV in AAA), but I don’t think we’re going to see him get balls in the air at anywhere near the required rate to have Major League success (in the short-term, at least).
Sticking with the Reds really quickly, here is a check-in on Noelvi Marte.
50 PA, .128/.160/.213, 1 HR, 3.2% Brl%, 34% K%, 2% BB%, 62% Contact%
Very slow start, but this could be considered his “spring training period” after the suspension. Last season he had a much better 74% Contact% and 20% K% in the Majors (123 PAs), so if you have him - you should be holding on for now, but maybe you just bench him for a week so you don’t have to take these bad stats while he shakes off the rust.
At the same time, it’s not a sure thing at all that the guy can hit Major League pitching. We have just 173 career PAs now with a .691 OPS and a 53% GB%. The jury is still out, so in a 10-team league, I would be looking elsewhere.
Rowdy Tellez
He homered off of a lefty last night, and I watched it. It was beautiful. Now for the year:
.253/.308/.403, .711 OPS, 8 HR, 7.6% Brl%, 20.8% K%, 79.5% Cont%
Since June 1st:
.363/.408/.659, 1.068 OPS, 7 HR, 13.7% Brl%, 18.4% K%, 86.6% Contact%
That’s 0.3 points of barrel rate away from being a magic formula qualifier. The contact rate is extremely impressive alongside that high of a barrel rate.
Since June 1st, for hitters with at least 80 PAs, only five hitters have a Contact above 80% and a Brl% above 12%.
Lindor: 152 PA, 19.8% Brl%, 80.5% Cont%
Santander: 149 PA, 16.8% Brl%, 80.9% Cont%
Y Alvarez: 125 PA, 16.8% Brl%, 80.9% Cont%
Tellez: 98 PA, 13.7% Brl%, 86.6% Cont%
Moreno: 91 PA, 12.5% Brl%, 81.7% Cont%
So Tellez leads the pack in terms of contact rate there. I think his homer off of a lefty might get a start or two coming up here against lefties. That probably won’t go well, but I’m starting to think that Tellez is close to a must-own in daily changes leagues where you can just plug him in against righties.
Josh Palacios
Sticking with the Pirates, a deep league hitter to consider. Very deep leagues, probably. Palacios is back with the Pirates and is looking like the everyday right fielder after they sent down Edward Olivares. Yinzer bro’s really like Palacios, I guess he’s a fun guy or something like that - but who cares. His big league resume now from the last two seasons:
284 PA, .240/.289/.427, .716 OPS, 12 HR, 24 PA/HR, 10% Brl%, 19.7% K%, 6% BB%, 74% Contact%, .323 xwOBA
Bad average, horrible OBP, but a decent supply of power. He’s homered twice in 20 PAs this year, so in a crazy deep league, there is some usefulness there.
Zack Gelof
Big game for Gelof, who continues to improve.
Last 30 days:
.271/.330/.506, .836 OPS, 5 HR, 5 SB
Only 11 hitters have 5+ steals and 5+ homers in the last month
Ohtani, Henderson, Robert, Kelenic, Lindor, Gelof, Suzuki, Ramirez, Duran, Yelich, Burleson
So he’s giving you that production. I projected him as a 20-20 hitter, and therefore liked him a lot this year. That has gone terribly overall, but he’s making up for the slow start lately.
Lawrence Butler
Let’s make up a new stat to show you something about Lawrence Butler.
I took every hitter with at least 100 ABs, and summed up their homers and steals. Then I added those two together and found a rate of homer or steal per AB. Here are your elite producers:
The league average is 5.3 homers plus steals per AB. Lawrence Butler is above average at 6.3% with his five homers and five steals in 158 ABs. That’s actually not nearly as good as I thought, so never mind - he’s no good for fantasy unless we’re talking 15-team, deep daddies.
But since I went through all that trouble, here’s the full leaderboard.
Maybe the best thing to do with this is to find the players you’re using in a roto league that are really low on this. Roto fantasy baseball is so much about homers and steals. Those two comprise 40% of the standard categories, and home runs correlate highly with RBI. So if you have a guy sucking here, they’re almost surely killing you in 60% of the categories. Some of the guys under 4% that are probably owned in your leagues. I’ve bolded the guys I think you can cut (or maybe try to trade) in a 12-team standard roto league.
Luis Arraez 1.0%
Yandy Diaz 2.2%
Nolan Arenado 2.5%
Yainer Diaz 2.6%
Bo Bichette 3.0%
Jonah Heim 3.2%
Jake Burger 3.4%
Andy Pages 3.4%
Jorge Soler 3.5%
Vinnie Pasquantino 3.5%
Alex Bregman 3.7%
Gleyber Torres 3.9%
Matt Olson 3.9%
I’m pretty close to calling it quits on Soler as well (I have him in my home league), but I still think the power potential is just too much to give up on quite yet. The guy is fully capable of leading the league in homers for a month, so that would be scary to lose.
Julio Rodriguez
Big game for him, and that immediately shot up the moving OPS:
But I can’t find a single split where he’s been good. Over his last 50 PAs, he has just a .617 OPS, and since June 1st, he has just a .681 mark. I’m still trying to buy low; maybe that big game last night will be the launching point.
Ben Rice
He homered again and popped up on the magic formula qualifiers today. He has nine barrels, five homers, and just 13 strikeouts in his 69 PAs. He debuted on June 18th, and since then he’s slashed .267/.348/.567 with five homers and a 19% K%. His barrel rate is 20%, so that’s higher than his K% - extremely impressive. The xwOBA is .431; the GB% is 33%, and the Contact% is 77%, and he’s checked all of the boxes.
He’s a must-add guy, but that’s mostly because he has catcher eligibility. It won’t be surprising at all to see him struggle, we just don’t have a big enough sample size to draw any great conclusions here. But the upside is tantalizing.
My friend Nick made fun of me yesterday because I always my section of the daily notes in the same way. So I’m not going to end the notes the same way today. I’m going to give a much better ending. Wieners.
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Brayan Bello
2. Yusei Kikuchi
3. Carlos Rodon
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Jameson Taillon
6. Max Scherzer
7. Chris Sale
8. Ryan Pepiot
9. Logan Gilbert
10. Jose Quintana
11. Joey Estes
12. Ronel Blanco
13. Blake Snell
14. Cal Quantrill
15. Ben Lively
16. Trevor Rogers
17. Nick Lodolo
18. Zac Gallen
19. Jake Irvin
20. Bobby Miller
21. Dean Kremer
22. Adam Mazur
23. Colin Rea
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. SF): 34.89 Points
2. Jose Quintana (vs. WSH): 28.55 Points
3. Quinn Priester (vs. MIL): 27.9 Points
4. Ronel Blanco (vs. MIA): 26.75 Points
5. Logan Gilbert (vs. SD): 26.26 Points
6. Chris Sale (vs. ARI): 25.19 Points
7. Ryan Pepiot (vs. NYY): 24.56 Points
8. Jameson Taillon (vs. BAL): 24.5 Points
9. Zack Wheeler (vs. LAD): 24.25 Points
10. Brayan Bello (vs. OAK): 21.39 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brayan Bello (BOS): 23 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 19 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 19 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
4. Jose Quintana (NYM): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Quinn Priester (PIT): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 12 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
7. Max Scherzer (TEX): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Chris Sale (ATL): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
9. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 11 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
10. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 11 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brayan Bello (BOS): 61.9 Strike%, 25.7 Ball%
2. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 56.8 Strike%, 27.3 Ball%
3. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 56.0 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
4. Chris Sale (ATL): 55.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
5. Max Scherzer (TEX): 51.6 Strike%, 26.3 Ball%
6. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 49.5 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
8. Joey Estes (OAK): 49.1 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
9. Quinn Priester (PIT): 47.4 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
10. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 46.3 Strike%, 42.1 Ball%
11. Cal Quantrill (COL): 46.2 Strike%, 42.3 Ball%
12. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 46.1 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
13. Blake Snell (SF): 45.2 Strike%, 38.4 Ball%
14. Joey Wentz (DET): 44.6 Strike%, 44.6 Ball%
15. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 43.9 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert: 87 Pitches, 23 Outs, 3.78 POUT
2. Ronel Blanco: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
3. Yusei Kikuchi: 100 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.55 POUT
4. Jameson Taillon: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
5. Jose Quintana: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
6. Max Scherzer: 95 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Zack Wheeler: 76 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.07 POUT
8. Blake Snell: 73 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.21 POUT
9. Jake Irvin: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
10. Quinn Priester: 95 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.28 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.6
Quinn Priester's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 88.4
Joey Wentz's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 80.1
Chris Sale's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 80.3
Quinn Priester's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.4
Chris Sale's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.3
Brayan Bello's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.3
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.3
Max Scherzer's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.6
Joey Estes's ST velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 76.7
Dean Kremer's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.6
Ronel Blanco's CH velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.6
Ronel Blanco's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 92.1
Jake Irvin's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 92.6
Cal Quantrill's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.3
Dean Kremer's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 92.5
Ronel Blanco's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 85.0
Bobby Miller's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 96.4
Bobby Miller's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 85.0
Bobby Miller's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 86.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's FF usage (46.2%) up 14.0 points
Brayan Bello's SI usage (48.6%) up 10.3 points
Carlos Rodon's CH usage (27.4%) up 18.5 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (22.4%) up 18.1 points
Joey Estes's ST usage (30.9%) up 14.3 points
Nick Lodolo's SI usage (29.0%) up 21.2 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (57.0%) up 10.6 points
Zac Gallen's CU usage (41.0%) up 16.8 points
Zack Wheeler's FC usage (21.1%) up 16.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Severino Sinker: +26.0%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +18.9%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +15.6%
Yariel Rodriguez Slider: -15.4%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -15.4%
Emerson Hanco*ck Sinker: +15.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +15.0%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.7%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -14.4%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +14.4%
Emerson Hanco*ck 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Spencer Schwellenbach Split-Finger: +13.5%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.2%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Nick Lodolo 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Ryne Nelson Cutter: -12.5%
Luis Gil Slider: +12.5%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.4%
Kyle Hendricks 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.1%
Griffin Canning 4-Seam Fastball: +12.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 71 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 78 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 69 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 95 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 95 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 96 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 99 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Nestor Cortes - 69 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 41.6% K%
Pablo Lopez - 73 TBF, 39.7% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 35.1% K%
Bailey Ober - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Paul Skenes - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Cole Ragans - 100 TBF, 32.0% K%
Garrett Crochet - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pablo Lopez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 78 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Jameson Taillon - 98 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 95 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 71 TBF, 64.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 80 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 73 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 98 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 80 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Ben Lively - 94 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 66 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Max Fried - 80 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 53.8% GB%
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