The WNBA is back in action following a monthlong Olympic break that saw Team USA narrowly defeat France, 67-66, powered by two-time MVP A'ja Wilson. As the second half of the season tips off, it's time to look ahead and predict how the rest of the season might shake out.
Back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces are returning to the court with their four All-Star starters returning home with gold medals and a desire to bring home more hardware at the end of the WNBA season. But the reigning champs aren't the squad leading the league now: That honor belongs to the New York Liberty, off to their best start in franchise history and seeking revenge after failing to bring home the championship last year.
Commissioner Cup Champion Minnesota Lynx are on the prowl and looking to return to full strength after a bout with plantar fasciitis sidelined MVP candidate Napheesa Collier for five games ahead of the All-Star and Olympic break.
All-Star rookies Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese have the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky, respectively, in contention for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and could be battling for both Rookie of the Year and playoff positioning until the playoffs begin on September 22.
Here are some storylines and predictions for the second half of the WNBA season.
Storyline: Injured Teams Hope to Turn It Around
Before the break, the Phoenix Mercury was one of the hottest teams in the W, especially after the return of Brittney Griner to the lineup. Phoenix has one of the best scorers in the league in Olympian Kahleah Copper, one of the best passers in Tasha Cloud and a dominant two-way force in Griner, who also happens to be hyper-efficient. You can't forget about wily veteran Diana Taurasi, who is still putting up numbers for this Mercury squad despite not seeing much playing time for the Olympic team.
Practically every member of the Dallas Wings has been sidelined with injury over the start of the season and though they may be bruised, Arike Ogunbowale has done everything in her power to keep the Wings flying and she could be in for her "on your left" moment from Avengers Endgame with the return of Most Improved candidate Maddy Siegrist and the season debut of Satou Sabally. Though it may be quite a hill to climb to fight for a playoff spot, the Wings should be a markedly better team in the second half of the season and in prime position to secure one of the premier talents in the star-studded 2025 Draft.
One team that has found itself on the outside of next year's Superstar Sweepstakes is the Atlanta Dream, as the squad traded away its 2025 Draft pick in exchange for former Dallas Wings player Allisha Gray, who just took home an extra $110,000 for winning both the 3-point contest and skills challenge during All-Star Weekend. Atlanta hopes the return of 3x3 Bronze medalist Rhyne Howard can help propel the squad into the playoff mix.
Storyline: Looking Ahead to the 2025 Draft
Though maybe not this season, the Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics can be hopeful that reinforcements are coming. The Sparks and Mystics have two of the worst records this season, and thanks to tumultuous seasons from both last year, the teams find themselves poised to secure franchise-changing stars next season like UConn's Paige Bueckers or USC's Kiki Iriafen.
Washington could potentially nab two high lottery picks after landing Atlanta's 2025 first-round draft pick in the trade that sent Stephanie Soares to the Dallas Wings and set themselves up much in the same way the Sparks did in the 2024 Draft with the selection of Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson at #2 and #4. The Mystics would probably love to pair Aaliyah Edwards with her former UConn teammates Paige Bueckers or Azzi Fudd to build a young core with instant continuity.
Storyline: Can New Lineups Help the Sky and Sun?
The Chicago Sky are in the hunt for that 8th seed but the retooling of the team may set them back. Before the All-Star break, the team traded its second-leading scorer Marina Mabrey to the competitive Connecticut Sun in exchange for the elite shooting of Rachel Banham and playmaking of Moriah Jefferson. With around 15 games left in the season, Chicago is among the league's most infrequent and inaccurate shooting teams.
The Sky hope that deploying a lineup with more shooters will create a more balanced attack on offense, but adding a new play style midseason that diverges from their league-leading rim scoring could stifle their playoff hopes.
Their trade partner, the Sun, are in a similar position regarding shooting but still remain one of the W's top squads, thanks to their staunch defense and crisp offensive attack. Originally, Connecticut added Banham and Jefferson in an attempt to shore up their shooting, but the impressive development of DiJonai Carrington and Ty Harris left both in limbo.
Adding in Mabrey gives extra ball-handling and crafty shot-making alongside Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. Mabrey's intensity on the court pairs perfectly with the equally intense Carrington, with whom Mabrey has clashed on the court multiple times. Provided that the two have time to hash out their differences, they could be one of the more dynamic combos in the league with Carrington's blazing speed and Mabrey's lights-out shooting.
Prediction: Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever Take the 8th Spot
Clark is having one of the most statistically impressive seasons in WNBA history, leading all rookies in points, assists, steals and three-pointers made, all while facing one of the toughest schedules before the break.
For the first time since the NCAA championship game in April, Clark was able to get extended rest after months of grueling basketball. Even with the tough schedule, the young core of the Indiana Fever began to figure it out later in the season, with each member finding their respective roles. With more time and continuity, Indiana could end up in sole possession of the final playoff seed.
Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith form an opposing frontcourt, with Boston's rebounding and touch around the rim and Smith's skillful play. Kelsey Mitchell's veteran savvy and scoring skills mesh well with Clark, as she never shies away from a tough bucket, even in the last seconds of the shot clock.
Prediction: A'ja Wilson Lands Her Third MVP
In an act of potential foreshadowing, Wilson, a two-time MVP, two-time DPOY and last year's Finals MVP, brought home even more accolades, earning gold in the 2024 Olympics and tournament MVP honors. If the best in the world can't stop Wilson, who can? The Aces' all-time leading scorer has even evolved, still grabbing more boards than ever as well as developing her three-ball, which she's knocking down at nearly a 40 percent clip.
The three-time blocks leader is locking down on the defensive end as well, averaging nearly three blocks per contest. In conjunction with her lethal turnaround jumper, Wilson has added more off-the-dribble skills to her repertoire, making her a weapon at every spot on the court. With her dominant skill set, it makes sense why she was awarded the first 99 overall rating for a WNBA player in NBA 2K history.
Storyline: What Else Does Awards Season Hold?
While MVP looks like a lock, the other season awards are more of a competition. While Wilson has been monstrous on the defensive end, the Aces' mediocre start could be a potential setback for the two-time DPOY looking to secure a third.
Her fiercest competition on that end may be the Minnesota Lynx's Napheesa Collier, who alongside Wilson is the only player in the league to average 20-10. Collier also ranks in the top of the league in steals, rebounds and blocks for the league's best defensive team. Her two-way prowess plus the Lynx's record could lead Collier to her first DPOY.
The race for Sixth Player of the Year could be interesting, as front-runner Chennedy Carter could be playing her way out of contention for the award. After a stellar season coming off the bench, Carter was upgraded to a starting role and began to transform the Sky squad, becoming one of the best scorers in the league.
If Carter continues her hot streak as a starter, she could still be in line for Most Improved after being out of the WNBA for a season. If Carter becomes ineligible for Sixth Player, an array of players like the Aces' Tiffany Hayes fresh out of retirement and returning from playing Olympic basketball for Azerbaijan, Myisha Hines-Allen, a buoying presence for the struggling Washington Mystics, or Kayla Thornton, leading the #1-seeded Liberty, could be in line to add the award to their trophy case.
Most Improved could be even more muddied, with a slew of players stepping up this season to help their team. DiJonai Carrington looks to be the front-runner for the award after developing more of her offensive skill set to pair with her defensive tenacity, as she happily takes on the opposing team's best player.
Though Carrington has shined, there are still plenty of players worthy of the award, including Chicago's efficient blur Carter, Dallas' breakout player Maddy Siegrist, who was sidelined with a broken finger before the break, or Minnesota's Alanna Smith, who has cemented herself as a deadeye shooter averaging double figures for the first time in her career. Smith is also a defensive standout, among the best shot blockers in the league for a stout defensive team.
Last but not least, the race for Rookie of the Year may be more contentious than once thought. Though Clark has had a banner season, her counterpart Reese has been equally historic. Her double-double record put her among the greats in her rookie year and her tenacity on the boards has saved Chicago more than once. The Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky are virtually neck and neck in the standings, which could play a massive role in the award's voting.
Storyline: A Potential Finals Rematch?
As it stands, the defending champion Las Vegas Aces are fifth in the standings and still making up ground from their mediocre start to the season that saw them without floor general Chelsea Gray for 12 games. With the return of Gray to the court, plus Olympic reps for four of the starters, the Aces could be ready to battle their way back to the top of the standings with the New York Liberty, who had been playing inspired basketball before the break, leading to a five-game winning streak.
New York would love to redeem themselves after losing the 2023 Finals, but first they have to battle the Connecticut Sun, who hope to shape back up to their winning ways after a rough stretch before the break.
The two Eastern Conference powerhouses will have to duel for supremacy as the number #1 and #2 seeds in the league, while the battle-tested Las Vegas Aces will have to test the mettle of the stalwart Lynx, led by Olympic coach Cheryl Reeve and the freshly formed Seattle Storm.
Could we be in for a marquee Stewie-A'ja matchup once more or could Connecticut finally break through and make the Finals for the first time? Or maybe storied franchises with new looks, like Storm or Lynx, could bring their squads back to glory? With the indomitable play of Wilson, you shouldn't be surprised if she powers the Aces back to the finals and notches both league and Finals MVP.
